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A three-judge federal appeals court has unanimously sided with two California tribes seeking to stop Kalshi from offering sports wagers to users on their tribal land without authorization.

The Ninth Circuit ruled that Blue Lake Rancheria and Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me‑Wuk Indians are likely to prevail in their claim that predictions-market operator Kalshi’s sports event contracts violate the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act when purchased on tribal lands. The court sent the case back to district court to consider whether to issue a preliminary injunction.

The ruling addresses a central question in the growing dispute between tribes and prediction-market operators: whether federally regulated contracts tied to sports outcomes can operate on Indian lands outside tribal gaming laws.

“The substance of the sports event contracts offered on Kalshi’s designated contract market is sports gambling, regardless of whether Kalshi calls them swaps,” Judge M. Margaret McKeown wrote in her opinion.

The court also found that a wager occurs on Indian lands when a customer enters the contract while physically in tribal territory, even if Kalshi’s headquarters and technology infrastructure are elsewhere.

Both tribes prohibit gaming on their lands unless expressly authorized under tribal law. The court said their regulatory structures create a system that bars unauthorized Class III gaming.

The three-judge panel rejected Kalshi’s argument that federal commodities laws displaced the tribes’ IGRA claims, finding the two statutes regulate different activities.